Essential Global Concerns to Concentrate On
What should be the most essential concerns of our world at this time?
Regarding risks and also opportunities
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(by Helmut Schwab)
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051511
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An endless sequence of daily emergencies absorbs the political leaders of our world and directs all energies toward the need for ever changing fast responses. Little time and energy remains to discuss and possibly define the basic direction which our human society pursues or, actually, should pursue. But any effort to arrive at global coordination fails with the veto power of the political leadership of merely a single country, as at the UN’s Security Council.
There is a need for a general “vision” for human society beyond daily emergencies, providing the indication of global opportunities to pursue and, mainly, risks to avoid – and of the fundamental “values” to judge by.
All leadership, not only in politics, but also in industry (and, often, in the conduct of personal life) is preoccupied with solving a plethora of daily problems which arrive in a fractal pattern (see the promising beginning of the Obama presidency and its subsequent actual development). Good leadership, however, must not only concentrate on daily problems, but also, or primarily, on essential opportunities – and on a long-term vision.
Furthermore, many political leaders concentrate too much of their effort on their own reelection only. Few political leaders are capable and sincere enough to rightly assess long-term global trends and selecting favorable courses to follow – not only responding to, but also forming the evolution of our human society in, the course of history.
A sample list of global concerns is interesting, especially when not only concentrating on risks and problems of the world, but also on essential opportunities, which can and must be include in any consideration. Here is a basic list to consider:
“Global Guidance”: Considering the fact that our world is increasingly globally connected, further progress of human society demands a structure of “global guidance” – if not of global goernance. Strategic priority setting and the most difficult globally coordinated implementation of long-term visions should be established. Coordination of individual national interests may still be the most difficult task. Some pursue their own individual national interests only, others may want to sit on the sidelines.
“Global Cooperation” is already visible in international humanitarian aid and certain (but not all) United Nations decisions. More important may become any future UN-sanctioned peacekeeping initiatives – for humanitarian reasons or world security – as in the Balkans, lately in Libya. Where is the limit to forced regime change? Why only in some countries and not in others (Syria, North Korea, Myanmar, Zimbabwe, and others)? Have the UN been disappointing? What could they be replaced or, better, complemented by? Possibly by a guidance committee of exceptional personalities? Who would select them?
“Governance”: At the root of too many problems on Earth lies principally inadequate governance, globally and in individual countries. This applies mainly to the problems of reduction of poverty, but also to the reduction of violence, corruption, and medical suffering – and also to the improvement of human rights and opportunities fairly for all – in some form of freedom.
More recently, the excessive indebtedness of many countries became a key governance problem – with only ever higher costs in sight, specifically for social programs, where spending corrections would hit the needy and leave the well-to-do in comfort.
Therefore, the “essence” and structure of governance must be considered. Not only the problem of the often similar origin and persistence of rogue governments or dictators (and their possible elimination), but also the weaknesses of accepted governments in the developed world must be analyzed. On the other hand, the nature and favorable evolution of the efficiency of certain preferred forms of governance must be investigated (Switzerland).
The role of outstanding individuals should not be overlooked, whether dangerous demagogues or beneficial activists, leaders, or councilors.
With the natural evolution of mankind and cultures (up and down), governance cannot be static. Adequate changes in governance must be searched and allowed for. Do we need another Solon – or Niklaus von Flüe?
“Pervasive Poverty”: What ultimately counts in attempting to arrive at a better world is an answer to the pervasive poverty. The “lack of job opportunities” is seen as the main reason for poverty in most parts of the world – and needs further analysis in the frame of our now “globally competitive” world. Even if some jobs are available, income must go to the needy or deserving and not disappear in corruption and the pockets of elites – who, in some places, are related to drug trafficking.
Fairness in national income distribution demands good governance. Additionally, however, there is the problem of “culture” – including a general attitude for disciplined work, desire to learn and to educate children, financial responsibility, family coherence, and, most importantly, also work ethics in business, public service, and politics. Culture relates to generally accepted values and to prevalent personality formation. Actual culture problems exist in larger societies in various countries and in specific sub-segments of those, among the financial elite, abundantly in small areas of low-income inner cities in the developed world, and also among some groups of disconnected immigrants.
Large scale migration may help those who reach “better worlds” – but often resulting in specific poverty among the excluded would-be migrants or also among the natives finding themselves with greater job competition at lower cost. Black inner city youths in America trying to establish a family cannot compete with Central American immigrants living as singles in crowded quarters (while building their future by sending their earnings home). In large scale migration, Darfur is still unresolved.
The millions of illegal immigrants in the USA (and some in Europe) face special hurdles to prosperity, especially since they send a large portion of their earnings back to their families in their native countries. As border fences are being built ever higher, only the most determined or skillful immigrants get across (resulting in a personality drain on the originating countries – similar to the one between East and West Germany) – leaving the others behind with more problems (as when the most successful African American move out of the inner cities to a better suburbia, leaving the lesser performers behind). Even high level immigration of nurses, medical doctors, scientists, or programmers from less developed countries is burdened with problems for the sending countries (brain drain) and the receiving countries (job competition and formation of new networks).
Immigration problems are aggravated when or where integration does not take place, where religious differences or women’s rights pose a special problem.
Finally, one could ask whether there still is the problem of natural evolution – apparently always leading to overpopulation with consequent harsh selection and survival of only the fittest?
“Social Imbalance”: The problem of poverty too often is seen in direct combination with the problem of corruption and in direct connection with social imbalance. Even in underdeveloped countries, too often the elites do very well for themselves and leaders plunder the few existing financial resources. In developed countries, the elites use their political influence to obtain unfairly low taxation (USA and others). The imbalance in income and wealth burdens too many countries – and also the global cooperation of all nations.
“Special Problems or Opportunities”: More problems or opportunities exist, but are too diverse, to be easily categorized – including environmental problems, drug consumption and drug trade, overpopulation, education, law-and-order, exhaustion of limited resources, provisions for the elderly in an aging world population (including their medical needs), and more.
And where is a list of “opportunities”?
Opportunities can be found in the study of periods with political/social configurations leading to impressive increases in general well-being and flowering cultures. In spite of the long list of problems and concerns indicated above, history has shown time and again that periods of progress can occur, new opportunities can appear, and outstandingly positive leaders do emerge.
Periods of great prosperity in many countries in the course of their history indicate the principal opportunity to strive for. Occasionally, these periods result from the discovery of natural resources (silver for historic Athens, oil for Arabia and other countries, gold for the nascent USA). At other times, technological innovation and a corresponding industry brought such periods (cars and aviation for the USA, machinery for Germany, and now innovative electronics for the USA, again). The prosperity of the Renaissance in Italy (while Spain stagnated) became possible due to the relatively low level of mental restraint by the ruling class and, mainly, by the religious hierarchy (while Spain went through the inquisition). There was a favorable period in Germany and other Northern countries between 1500 and the beginning of the 30-years religious and imperialistic war (1618 to 1648).
Where will such opportunities for beneficial progress be in the future? What are the conditions for the appearance of such periods, for their perception, and for their evolution? What can and must be done now?
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Following is a more specific list of risks and opportunities:
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The specific risks:
One group of global risks relates to nature. (Surprisingly, this group of risks is the least indicated when polling a number of people about their perception of essential global risks for mankind):
Obviously, “Global Warming”, if confirmed in the severity of its consequences, must be seen as the most essential global concern at this time – especially when aggravated by environmental damage caused not only by warming, but also by business interests or population growth. The obvious consequences would be much higher cost or the unavailability of food and, consequently, hunger, suffering and larger migrations, combined with significant social turmoil.
The little restrained generation of gases leading to global warming by various countries is similar to the problem of overfishing. Each fisherman claims that he is merely taking a very small percentage of the total. What he is not taking, another fisherman will. Saving fish for future generations is difficult while each fisherman has to provide for his own family and educate his children now.
A somewhat lesser environmental concern, with already some countermeasures becoming effective, is the depletion of the Ozone layer in the atmosphere.
The possibility of an extremely deadly pandemic should be seen as another very serious and not unlikely concern for mankind. The frequency of new diseases appearing, the speed of global disease spreading, and the time needed to develop countermeasures were demonstrated by HIV/AIDS, more recently, by the H1N1 (Swine) Flu, and now by the newly discovered importance of the NDM-1 gene.
These natural concerns could only be rivaled at some future time by the danger of an approaching meteorite of the size which is believed by some scientists to have caused the extinction of most life on Earth 65 million years ago.
Actually, a somewhat smaller and possibly still divertible meteorite is expected near Earth within the next 30 to 50 years and a bigger one in 2182. Examples of the past: The Arizona Crater and the Noerdlinger Ried Crater, Germany, where the ejecta reached to 70 km out.
The explosion of a new super-nova in less than 300 light years distance may terminate all life on Earth.
An equal concern would be renewed volcanic up-wellings from deep within Earth when occurring with such extreme volume and intensity as the one having caused the formation of the Daccan Traps in India during that same time period of general extinctions 65 million years ago – and in Northern Siberia 200 million years earlier (and at four other times since the origin of higher forms of life 600 million years ago, always resulting in extensive extinctions of life).
Other concerns could be gigantic volcanic collapses as occurred upon the formation of Lake Toba in Northern Sumatra, at Krakatau, and on Bali, or as caused the gigantic caldera in the Yellowstone area (that area is lately showing some slow buckling once more), or the volcanic ex- and implosion at Thera (at “Santorini” in the Greek islands) in ancient times – all threatening the survival of many people in their respective geographic area – or even of all of mankind. Just imagine a similar collapse of a volcano in Northern California, Oregon, and Washington State – or of one of the European volcanoes (near Naples and on Sicily) – or of Mt. Fuji!
The Island of La Palma in the Canary Islands is considered unstable. A sliding back into the ocean of a large part of this island would trigger a tsunami ravaging the American East coast with such extreme violence that the city of New York and quite a few others could be destroyed.
The preoccupation with such concerns would be that much more valid as their occurrence could be accurately predicted and countermeasures be devised – or as limited survival appeared possible but only in certain specific areas on Earth. The competition to be among the survivors would heat up – where to have property on Earth, where to be a citizen, and how to be protected against others attempting to stream in – all horrible visions!
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Another group of risks relates to the human world:
When polling a number of other people, the most important concerns indicated by them (often overlapping) were:
ü Poverty, is there enough work for all people on Earth, how to find it and create jobs, our economic system is geared to eliminate jobs and inefficiencies, to convert income into profits or stock value, not job opportunities – how to let the banks lend more in lieu of having cash on hand – social imbalances, strategies to resolve those, how can a committee make any difference – use of energy, lifestyle, the Chinese currency manipulation (#3)
ü Health, happiness, family, and faith
ü Health, social justice, education
ü Stabilization of the human population, harmony (self, society – common destiny), adequate essentials, basic dignity
ü Population control, tolerance, information control, education
ü Extremists (jihad), drugs and drug trafficking, weak governments – corruption, “the poor always stay poor”
ü Socio-economic polarization, social status through financial success – even if stolen (money = heroes), the best of the young people go to Wall Street instead of going into engineering, agriculture, or the sciences in order to improve the world – implications are frightening – it is for this reason that the US are on a downward spiral – incentives are needed to make positive differences, to drive the country – considering inertias – religious, cultural, and economic (#1)
ü Formation of a new “world culture”. Social imbalance, injustice (health, education, food) – need for fair distribution, for fair political, financial, and energy structures. Environmental problems. Need for new resources. (#11)
ü Power of evil dictators – need for tolerance, formation of society by cultures (#6)
ü Energy availability, environment, morals, structures of society (reforming democracy, also the financial sector)
ü Careless and irresponsible exploitation of the world’s resources, too much construction close to the shores of the oceans (in spite of dangers of earthquakes, weather, high tides, tsunamis) – further: the education of children, the “values” of nations should not get lost, utilization of leisure time, job dedication (not just going home at 5 pm) – further: the danger of an astronomic super-nova in closer than 300 light years distance (#8)
ü Let the underdeveloped countries exploit and develop their resources themselves (train and motivate them, don’t exploit them) – thereby resolve depravations (famine, etc.) – see Cuba (paradise was promised possible, but very poor now) vs. US free market – or mineral wealth (#2)
ü Lead the underdeveloped countries into the future – often, their social structures appear frozen (Pakistan, Afghanistan, N. Korea, much of Africa, Saudi Arabia), see Robert Kaplan “The Coming Anarchy”. Many are not interested in the American model – Max Weber’s ideas (1904) of Protestant Work Ethics – race for military superiority among new competitors (China, India, Iran, N. Korea) – aging in the West, less educated people (#10)
ü Use of leisure time, culture-religion-art, interconnectivity
ü Natural drives, addictions – poverty in the cities (not among farmers) – major diseases (AIDS) (#7)
ü Ethical values – finding back to values after the cruelties of wars – not neglecting or overlooking the poor (#4)
ü The “evil” is constant in history, since Roman brutality, today just different (#5)
ü A risk of our time: Mixing of all cultures, commercialization of everything (#9)
ü Environmental damage, public health
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Unhealthy life styles as by smoking, obesity, unsafe driving, and drug usage were not indicated by anybody – presently leading to so many deaths.
A consensus on problem definition and, mainly, on problem priorities may be the precondition for the definition of problem solutions and actions – both very difficult to obtain, already on a national and, more so, on an international level.
This essay at first seeks to define problems – possibly prioritizing them later – specifically since priorities are viewed quite differently among different regions and different groups of people in the world.
Possibilities for solutions may primarily depend upon governance, corruption, law and order, education and more – leading from one problem to several others.
Furthermore, governance (political, ideological, or religious leaderships and their support groups) is often tied to traditional culture and religion – viewed as immutable by some and in need for reform by others. Can Islam be reformed – as the Christian world once was? Can China and the Chinese system, as imitated by many other countries, be reformed to provide more basic human rights? Will necessary reform attempts lead to further stress with the West, mainly the USA? Does the world really become more secure when many previously weak countries become stronger and, consequently, the USA relatively weaker?
Who should and who will pay for problem solutions – see the arguments in the quest for climate stabilization at international meetings meant to bring solutions?
Will there be support for solutions and, mainly, for covering their cost from the average citizens? Very few people anywhere have money to spare – most people have unmet needs!
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My own priorities of concerns or risks and their description are:
The threat of a terrorist attack with a “dirty” bomb or bio-chemical material must be seen as a vital concern for the whole world.
The most dangerous situations in our time result from a combination of extremism with rogue governance, imperialism, a religiously based intolerance, and preference for violence – as becoming more pervasive – and as once already existed in historic and also more recent times, in religious or colonial imperialism (from the Spanish conquest of America, to the Nazis, to Chinas conquest of Tibet, and the establishment of Israel and its settlements in Palestine – and how about the Basque violent struggle for freedom and its suppression – and others?).
The restraint of extremists from dangerous violence, even if those are small minorities only, has proven to be an almost impossible task (see the excellent book “Managing the World Towards Peace” by Angelica Kohlmann Kuepper. This book may be contradictable in some detail, but remains fully convincing in total).
Extremism relates to the risk posed to the world or merely to their respective own population by the so-called “rogue” governments, which cannot be controlled by the world community (e.g. North Korea, Myanmar, Zimbabwe – and many others, differently counted from different points of view – see Iran and Israel – possibly even Pakistan).
The pervasive consumption of drugs, the drug trade, and its consequent violence, corruption, and loss of law-and-order in an increasing number of countries must be seen as an “essential global concern” for the world, now and for the future.
Will there be dangers for the world from the ever increasing and difficult to control flow of communication, information, and technological controls, e.g. via the internet (see such an indication recently by a German politician, by a Chinese college teaching “hacking”, another one issuing a thesis investigating the vulnerability of the US power grid – and the recent events in the Arab world)? Not only benevolent groups or activists but also violent “terrorists” extensively use the internet to propagate their objectives. In historic times, first the Communists in Russia, then the Nazis, now the rogue governments of the world exceeded in presenting only selective political information, “propaganda”, to keep the masses in a trance and under their control.
A more basic, fundamental, and important concern of our present world – and one our international community of nations should primarily address – is the pervasive poverty in too many places on Earth, combined with unchecked population growth, hunger, lack of water, inadequate medical care, and inadequate education – aggravated, if not caused, by bad governance, corruption, and the lack of law and order. There are too many countries where there actually is some national income, but only the rulers and the elite get rich, while the majority lives in abject poverty (example: Nigeria with its oil wealth – now, increasingly, Afghanistan).
In general, the solution for poverty is expected from better employment opportunities! But, by now, there is worldwide competition for such employment opportunities! Global commerce, global communication, and the low cost of transportation put everybody in competition with everybody else. Efficiency counts – often a matter of culture and of law and order. Too many countries will not be able to compete with China or other Asian cultures. How can the recent Arab or other revolutions suddenly bring well-paid jobs to their people – rather than a further disturbed economy?
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The list of specific opportunities:
There were several periods of mental and economic progress in the Western world. These periods were connected with little or no religious or political restraint and they recognized the significance of progress, sometimes providing encouragements and practical incentives for innovation.
The first known one of such periods occurred in ancient Greece after Thales of Milet offered a new explanation of earthquakes based not on divine action but on natural causes. Free and creative thought became an indication of mental and also artistic excellence, leading to fame and wealth. This golden period reached through to the conquest of Athens by Rome and, afterwards, somewhat reduced in the Roman culture (e.g. Augustan Peace, aqueducts and roads) – until the imperial governance crumbled and barbarian invasions set in.
The Renaissance in Italy brought wealth and well-being to the diverse Italian city states, based on new thoughts in all endeavors (including banking, discoveries by Galileo and Columbus, and the Reformation) and the beginning of a new world view, rewarding exploration and international trade.
Based on the earlier “Enlightenment”, the rather peaceful time in Europe between 1814 and 1914 (some regional wars and the 1848 revolutions in France, Germany, and Italy excluded) – most importantly, with limited religious or ideological suppression of mental freedom or progress, but with continued general “law and order” – produced the period of fastest economic growth, learning, understanding of our existence, and health improvement in the history of Europe and the world. In future times, this period of 1814 to 1914 may be seen as more important than the earlier period of “Enlightenment”.
This favorable period lasted until the all-too-avoidable World War I was started – by almost criminal misjudgment and emotions by the leaders on all sides! Should that not lead to an essential concern regarding the need for and the opportunities resulting from better global guidance, for the benefit of our global stability, for our security, mental freedom and progress, for all mankind when given the opportunity to live within “law and order” (if the laws are good ones and the “order” not corrupt or suppressive)?
The period following World War II may possibly be seen as another area of beneficial growth for mankind – this time bringing the novel dimension of global coherence in low cost transportation and electronic Internet communication!
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Two concerns which can be seen as either risks or opportunities are uncontrolled communication and the future evolution of ethics and religions
· Regarding free communication:
The recent struggle of the Chinese government to suppress the freedom of Google in China indicates the importance seen in free communication for the stability of society. Free communication can instigate unrest and revolution (see the recent Arab uprisings) – even the destruction of law and order.
The counter argument presents the astounding progress resulting from modern worldwide communication – possibly preventing destructive behavior by some governments and facilitating life’s improvement for all.
Therefore, the future development of information flows and communication should be seen as a global concern. Vision and guidance would be needed.
Directed and controlled communication for proselytizing and control was already used in historic times in establishing the Christian faith and church in Europe – more so in the following religious wars – and in expanding he world of Islam (see the recent attempt to build Minaret towers on the many mosques in Switzerland).
“Propaganda” became an almost scientific art in modern totalitarian political movements – the Nazis (Goebbels) and the communists (Lenin-Stalin, Mao and more).
That much more do the Western democracies cherish freedom of speech and of the media.
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· Regarding the future evolution of ethics and religions:
“Ethics” (ethical behavior) actually developed early in the course of natural evolution to facilitate the upbringing of the young and to form effectively functioning groups of individuals as among animals living in groups or “packs” (e.g. wolves) – to accomplish larger tasks than an individual alone could entertain – the territorial defense against other groups, the hunting of large animals, later in human history, large scale irrigation as in Mesopotamia and ancient Peru. Groups with such internal efficiency as provided by certain forms of ethical behavior had better chances for survival and expansion. (It should be noted, however, that the “personality” or behavior of an individual depends upon both, naturally given ethical behavior and the formative influence of a surrounding “culture”).
Such ethical behavior was neurologically supported not so much by thought, but by evolving “emotions” – of friendship, caring love (“agape”), empathy, sympathy, and feelings of satisfaction in self-sacrifice. This evolution already started early in natural evolution among animals living in packs, more so among primates, and, now, especially among humans.
The coherence and functioning of society depends largely upon the prevalent ethics in the respective communities.
Ethics, though of natural evolutionary origin as indicated before, too often were tied to religions – by seeing and projecting ethical standards as the “will of God” – consequently too often under the control of the priests.
Throughout history, some horrible atrocities were committed under the guidance of religions – whether by the Aztecs in ceremonial slaughtering of thousands, during the endless wars between the Christian Byzantine empire and the Muslim world, by the Christian church in the time of the inquisition, or now by Al Qaeda and the Taliban in the name of Islam. Actually, the religious prohibition of abortions and birth control can be seen in a very negative light.
Equally dubious was and still is the code of “honor” in many civilizations (possibly a side-product of the natural striving for rank in society) – leading to cruelty and killing in the West as it still does to honor-killing of women in Islamic societies. There is some indication that “pride” and “shame” already exists among higher animals.
In our time, the religious and ethical fundamentalists or extremists on all sides present substantial challenges and dangers to the security and the balanced functioning of governance.
As the acceptance of religions diminishes in our intellectual time, the acceptance of ethics depends upon leading individuals as role models (the Obama effect) and the formation of common opinions – “cultures” – as expressed in modern strictly secular legal systems!
In contrast to religions and faith, the so-called “scientific” thought of communism developed by Marx and Engels, once accepted with great hopes, actually brought enormous suffering to Russia, China and other societies, where it first conquered society and then degenerated.
At this time, Europe and North America seem to have found a benevolent direction in ethics – between extremes – basically formed by Christian ethics and expanded by democracy. Occasionally, there are risks of over-aggressiveness – see George W. Bush. Sometimes, however, there is the risk of idealistic weakness – leading to dangers in self defense.
Many other countries are struggling with finding a new ethical path – not only the so-called rogue governments – also China – in searching for stability and progress.
Where ethics are not longer defined and controlled by religions, the natural valuation of ethics results in the formulation of civic laws corresponding to and enforcing basic ethics.
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The natural evolution that brought forth positive ethics also brought forth the negative variants of ethics – as in the emotion to seek revenge – possibly leading to counter-revenge – and continuing on in a destructive chain. When an individual in a pair (friendship) or group connected by “ethical” cooperation feels offended by another individual or group, too often the need for retribution (revenge) is felt (“an eye for an eye”).
In more advanced cultures, the violent retribution is replaced by compensation. (Can there be compensation for actual or perceived wrong-doings between Israel and the Palestinians or between Al Qaeda or the Taliban and the West?)
Where “law and order” reigns, legal punishment is demanded – and, interestingly, also an “apology” – a symbolic form of positive retribution.
Actually, modern knowledge and analysis indicates that punishment is an emotional reaction of very limited value – except for abhorrence. More useful is reeducation of the failing individual – but necessarily combined with a change to a different surrounding “culture”! In pathological situations, confinement is necessary for the protection of society.
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One must notice that humans and human societies are not always efficient in assessing risks (see the start of World War I or others) or opportunities (see the surprising and un-anticipated economic benefits resulting from the age of the equally un-anticipated electronic innovations) – especially if such risks or opportunities are of novel nature or are distant in space or time. (This results from the fact that the human thought process is “combinatorial”, progressing only where building blocks of thought or perception are already available and positive (or important, though negative,) results from a new combination can be perceived – see the essays on the “Human Mind” on the website www.schwab-writings.com). Where such building blocks in thought are not available, related future developments cannot be mentally anticipated.)
“Economics”, an academic field well suited for such complex considerations, has developed a number of concepts to treat these concerns: the “cost/benefit” consideration or the “net present value”, “discount rate” in time assessments – since costs usually occur sooner and benefits later – and the concept of “trade-offs”, the relative evaluation of various alternatives against each other. Children have very steep discount rates for the future, politicians have them specifically up to the next election. Only older people think of long-term benefits for their offspring. Usually, people are more concerned with those types of events as may have most recently occurred.
There may occasionally be some obsessed people with extreme concerns for specifically their own “cause” – at worst forming activist “vocal minorities” with political impact.
Equally, there is a discount rate in space. What happens to your neighbor is less important than what happens to you. What happens on the other side of the world is even less important to you.
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Beyond such survival risks or threats on one side and memories of positive periods on the other side, the serious concerns of mankind, not only the risks but also the opportunities, are to be seen from an overview over a longer evolutionary time scale and on a wider historic-sociological horizon – and with different degrees of manageability.
Along these thought, an important starting point is the observation that the evolutionary voyage of mankind through time approaches a new level of organization in our time:
In the ever progressing natural evolution, large parts of nature actually remain on or close to their original level. Bacteria, fungi, simple plants, and some insects form by far the major part of the biomass on Earth. Merely a select few organisms were able to evolve into higher forms of complexity and organization – with “emerging” new characteristics – and larger brains.
Not only organisms gain in complexity, also the structure of human society continues growing toward greater complexity, sometime by new forms of organization on higher levels – from family units to clans, tribes, nations, and, now, the United Nations.
Following the example of “uniting” the inhabitants of various Alpine valleys into the Suisse Federation in the 13th century and, later, of 13 small former British colonies into the United States of America, the European nations recently proceeded with some unification within the European Union.
Besides these voluntary unifications, history shows a number of forced unifications accomplished by the empire-building ambitions of great leaders or nations. Examples are Russia, China (with their vast “colonies” among the subjugated Tibetans and Uigurs), and some modern composite nations resulting from colonial borders of former African or Asian colonies, including Pakistan and Afghanistan.
On the other hand, the instability and continued internal unrest of larger political units is apparent. Russia struggles with the Caucasus provinces which hope to become independent. China cannot suppress the Tibetans and Uigur. Spain still struggles with the Basques.
At this time, it still appears impossible that the nations of the world will accept the directive or corrective power of a superior united-world government (“United Nations”).
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In our time, the exhaustion of global resources (as clean air or food from the oceans) as well as, mainly, faster or cheaper communication (via the internet) and the lower costs of fast transportation have led to global interconnectivity of all nations on Earth. Consequently, not only global opportunities appeared for business, also global problems occurred as never before.
Most problems on Earth became “global”, affecting each nation without restraint by borders. This is most clearly demonstrated by the threat of global warming, the global appearance of infectious diseases and, more intensely so, by the recent interconnected economic recession in all parts of the world – but also by fads and fashions of modern life, including moral standards.
Atomic and biologic weapons become an additional threat to all nations when found in the hands of one or a few irresponsible “rogue” governments or irrational individuals.
The need arises for another evolutionary step of society – toward a global coherence under beneficial coordination or some guidance and, if necessary, restraining central governance.
All “governments” on Earth should be subject to an approval process – which would be revocable upon an unfavorable development!
Such organizational step requires a certain infrastructure – a form of governance – based on a commonly shared vision. Occasional international, intergovernmental coordination meetings may lead to a common vision and, at best, the definition of regulations. Those are, however, not enough – especially if they are not followed up by responsible action by all, as in the case of air pollution (or whale hunting) – including the problem of ongoing monitoring/detection and the general enforcement of given regulations.
For example, the United Nations have passed a nuclear non-proliferation treaty – which was promptly not signed or neglected by several nations – Israel, India, Pakistan – now also North Korea and Iran. In the case of air pollution, there are free-riders – sitting on the side line, possibly profiting from the present status, and waiting for other nations to do their part. Examples are the oil producers (Saudi Arabia, Venezuela) not chipping in to carry the cost of pollution reduction in the poor countries – or the rural slash-and-burn expansion of agricultural production (with enormous smoke clouds) in Indonesia and Brazil.
A possible approach to forming global guidance and governance could be the formation of a “Guidance Committee” adjunct to the United Nations consisting of recognized world leaders – for example, Nelson Mandela, Jimmy Carter, Helmut Schmidt, the Dalai Lama, and some others (possibly including Brzezinski, Henry Kissinger, Colin Powell and others).
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“Rogue” governments remain as a threat and burden to humanity. The definition of “rogue” is not very clear – generally indicating governments which become a burden to the world or to their own people, often combined with violence.
There is a typical pattern for the appearance and continuity of such governments. In a generally unstable situation, as in the formation of astronomical structures out of clouds of dust in the universe. One individual may, by circumstances, charisma or skill, attract a core following. This core group sees its own benefit in further supporting that central individual in order to attract more followers. Once in a certain position of power, this core group ruthlessly eliminates its adversary. A secret police and similar terror keeps the masses of the population under control. Occasionally, segments of the population or some tribes obtain special favors in order to buy and maintain their support.. Personality cult, sometimes with religious undertones, and skillful propaganda cements this situation – as does the fear by the central group to be held accountable for their misdeeds should their system collapse. The rise of Cromwell, Calvin, Napoleon, Hitler, Stalin, Mao, the North Korean leaders, the one in Zimbabwe, and in Libya may be compared to this description. Often, the death or elimination of the central individual may be the only solution.
Great danger arises for the whole world when such governments obtain great power – or possibly nuclear capability.
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D. Poverty, Global Economy/Employment, Social Balance, and Prosperity
When traveling around the world, the pervasive poverty and fruitless search for gainful employment by large portions of mankind are a prevalent impression – while often in the same areas small elites may be enjoying comfortable lives. Some inner cities in the wealthy Developed World look that way, too. Many see these problems as related to lack of economic growth, inadequate basic qualification in global competition, deficit in culture or social balance, inadequate education, out-of-control or irresponsible propagation, excessive immigration, and, mainly, poor governance.
Is there enough potential employment in each country and in the whole world to let everybody competitively participate? Economic growth is still seen as the cure-all for unemployment – even though human society may have to learn to live with only limited economic growth in the future. Politicians may have to learn to find and agree on suitable approaches for socially responsible economic growth – with benefits for all and protection of the innocently needy. Are all governments doing enough to increase job availability – at least for those on board? Is there enough and secure Social Security and affordable medical care – as being emotionally discussed within the USA and other countries with poor financial conditions at this time? The excellent Gates Foundation can do only so much in specifically chosen areas of killer diseases. Other do-gooder NGOs, after the most beneficial work of the Rockefeller and Ford Foundations in establishing the “Green Revolution”, now sometimes contribute to economic weakness in the receiving countries by ruining local agriculture and manufacturing – augmented by the business interests of international companies or foreign countries – lately including China, which is set for exploitation of natural resources in the underdeveloped world, even by sending their own labor forces and supervisors to do so, while paying off the local political elite.
Is there enough basic qualification among all poor populations for global competition – enough individual qualification of the potential participants in a global economy and enough qualification of local societies to attract business investments? It is politically “not correct” to assume or discuss ethnic differences in qualification – only differences in education. One could assume, however, that there are ethnic differences (as among human individuals in general) which would provide optimal suitability for some for a variety of different gainful occupations.
Culture and social balance: A special problem in some parts of the world and also in some areas of the inner cities in developed countries is a culture of low work performance and lack of financial responsibility. This problem arises already among some of the young in school (gangs) and among adults within certain groups which, thereby, form mini-cultures of low performance. Alcohol or drug addiction adds to the problem. When criminality sets in, future employment is further limited. Hopelessness for future economic gain contributes to this problem.
Many cultures allow the rich to gain ever more while the poor are kept poor, leading to social imbalance.
Are all countries doing enough to improve adequate education of their populations for global competition? Specifically, not enough is done for education to qualify the population for competitive work performance and for the rise to better paid employment.
There is the question of propagation in quickly growing, poor countries. Not enough is done for a reasonable and humanly acceptable approach to family planning. (As a matter of fact, some see the basic mechanism of natural evolution – unsustainable propagation and subsequent success only for the most suitable – as an irresolvable natural problem for mankind in general – implying poverty in the fringe area of humanity for ever).
Immigration to the more developed parts of the world – especially illegal immigration – raises complex questions. Obviously, fairness is demanded within the countries they reach. But with ever higher border fences, this would only help those who can jump over (or be smuggled around) those fences, neglecting the true and immigration causing problems faced by those left behind. If the fences where lowered or dropped, a hundred million people from South-America, several hundred people each from China, India, and Africa would quickly arrive in the USA and in Europe, some in Australia, outnumbering the natives (as the whites did the native Indians). Not only the poor would come, but also the young and college trained ones who cannot find jobs in their own countries. But the already jobless or underemployed ones in the native local populations of the developed countries would not go for that. Even recently arrived Hispanic groups in the USA turned against large-scale immigration from their own countries of origin.
Furthermore, a dollar contributed not to the immigrants, but to alleviation of poverty in the immigration causing countries would bring a multiple of benefit. What is fair and what is practical?
Bad governance is definitely the key problem of poverty in many parts of the world. Specifically, it is mainly corruption and the absence of law-and-order that prevent investments in underdeveloped countries. The money earned by the needy is channeled back to the elite. Heads of state and their support groups plunder the revenue from natural resources and the work of others. In some countries, drug trading groups willfully destroy governance. Even in the developed countries, failure of governance can lead to catastrophic problems with underfunded Social Security and social health care for all citizens in an aging population (also in China), especially when national financial conditions go through a crisis.
Where can solutions be searched for? In historic times, the nascent United States used steep import duties to start a local manufacturing economy in competition with Great Britain. In more recent times, Spain had tried this approach after WW-II. China still relies on substantial preferential benefits for the local economy (including artificial exchange rates) to let its own economy grow.
In general terms, each economic unit has to export as much as it wants to import – whether nations, families, or individuals. For individuals, the most common “export” is labor. There are more options, though. There could be the export of ideas (e.g. leading to patent royalties), of art (for writers, painters, dancers, and others), resources (when living on an oil patch – or being the owner of a business or feudal lord of an estate), or touristic exploitation of scenery – and more.
For too many people on Earth, neither one of those options appear to apply – whether for some Indios high in the Andes, for some Africans in remote areas, for too many good people living in corrupt countries, or for some socially misadjusted families in the big cities. Can good governance and better education help in each case? What else is needed or possible? What shall one do with the remaining poverty?
Furthermore, the economic rising of whole layers of a population is never fully balanced. Some always get richer quicker. Many of those then hold everybody else in bondage. Social instability has to be inhibited or resolved – by progressive taxation and other regulations or by social programs. Even in the USA of today, the superrich and large industry has the option to use lobbyists to prevent fair taxation on income and inheritance and to limit competition. The US form of democracy must be repaired, too!
Economic developments have the additional problem of being unbalanced, resulting in oscillations. Successful periods have the tendency to lead to excessive risk taking by the investors and to underperformance of the “spoiled” young generation (which for too long drifted toward Wall Street and the arts). Bubbles occur. Painful cutbacks must take place – sometimes exaggerated in their way.
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E. Special Global Concerns:
Opportunities:
o The world-wide need of freedom could be facilitated by fair laws, administered by a non-corrupt judiciary and police, and actually implemented.
o Much of our middle- and upper-class expenditures go for items that did not even exist 150 years ago and which still are not needed by groups dedicated to a modest life (e.g., the Amish): cars, vacation travel, appliances, electronic devices of all kinds, and more. Can global well-being occur without an ever increasing amount of per-capita consumption? This riddle, not only globalization, should be solved by academia in the field of Economics. This is the field where the next Nobel price should be seen!
o Specific material scarcities threaten our future – but the finding of substitutes may solve these problems. Even the scarcity of water can be solved with future availability of cheap and clean energy (when used for desalination).
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Risks:
o Global Warming, as mentioned before, and its consequences (desertification, rising oceans, social upheavals, migrations). Would trade in limited emission permits help?
o Scarcity of Water, see above (also a problem of energy – for desalination)
o Migrations (resulting from all of the above)
o Independence seeking by splinter groups – Basques, Tamil, Tibet, the Uigur, Ossetia. The possible split of some countries (Bolivia, Afghanistan, Nigeria, and several others)
o Pandemics
o Drug usage and drug trade
o What to do about the addicted, disorganized, undisciplined, or just lazy?
o Population expansion: What to do about unlimited propagation – preferably among the poorest and least educated? What to do about the very restricted and diminishing propagation of the intelligent and educated? What to do about the propagation of the inheritably diseased or handicapped? Is the having of children an unlimited privilege for all? Do we want a government to interfere with our intimate life and family building? Population contraction brings the problem of caring for the increasing group of the oldest.
o Vulnerability of or by world communication and information flow – see the Arab uprisings and the Chinese suppression of free information flows?
o With increasing well-being and augmented higher education, how can one create job opportunities for the increasing number of all the young new graduates in all countries?
o Lack of sufficient energy and of special resources may not be an insurmountable problem. Nuclear energy (specifically based on fusion, not fission) and replacement of some materials by others, even at somewhat lower performance efficiency, could solve most of the perceived problems. For example, even if copper may be in short supply, there is an almost infinite availability of aluminum on Earth.
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In theory, what is searched for is a static level of well-being for all. In reality, economic and cultural oscillations occur – sometimes bubbles.
Unfortunately, long periods of well-being lead the young generation to excesses in expectation of freedom or pleasure – and lead business people to excessive risk taking – thereby letting all kinds of business bubbles, even scams, appear. The onset of a recession brings them back to reality and the need to work and provide true value – even to excel in order to obtain a share of shrinking opportunities.
Recessions clean out the weak areas of industry – often with cruel consequences for older employees and investors – and correction of the “weak” distractions of the young generation (see 1968 and the following recession).
Is there a vision of a healthy world without economic oscillations?
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New political units – especially those formed recently and in freedom – occasionally have the desire to formulate their basic commitment – as a vision of their future society. Starting with the motto of the French revolution of 1789, “liberté, égalité, fraternité”, the motto of the United States of America became “Life, Liberty, and the Pursuit of Happiness”. The validity of each term can be discussed – “life” is questioned in the case of self-defense or wars deemed or presented as being defensive – “liberty” must be limited within moral and neighborly constraints – and “happiness”, a very individual matter, is the least defined term of all three. Still, a vision of a future America was established and is still pursued today!
The motto of the British Empire became “Law, Order, and Good Government” – much appreciated by most middle-class citizens, but also used to suppress disruptive, revolutionary activities.
Therefore, in China, the priorities for the Secretaries of the Communist Party doing the actual administration of the country are (as explained to me by one such Secretary) “Social Stability, Improvement of Basic Services, and Economic Development” – the first one forming the foundation of suppression of unplanned developments and mental freedom.
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In the longer or wider view, specifically six essential concerns and, additionally, several special concerns arise immediately:
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ü The need for “Global Guidance”, the development of a global vision: As indicated in the introduction, there is a need for a general vision for human society beyond daily emergencies, providing the indication of global opportunities to pursue and risks to avoid – and of fundamental “values” to judge by. All leadership in industry and politics is preoccupied with solving a plethora of daily problems arriving in a fractal pattern (see the beginning of the Obama presidentship). Better leadership, however, must also concentrate on opportunities. In fact, very few leaders are capable of rightly assessing trends and selecting favorable courses to follow, not only responding to, but also forming the evolution of history.
ü An organizational form complementing operational day-to-day leadership with a supervisory and guiding function can be found in industry and the constitution of a few nations, whether by an individual (“Chairman”) or a Supervisory Board. A US guidance committee could include some former Presidents (Carter) and Secretaries of State (Kissinger, Brzinski, Albright, Powell) and more. An international committee could include Mandela, Lee Kuan Yew, Schmidt, Carter, and more.
ü The need for “Global Governance” to supplement Global Vision, especially in times of need: Will a transnational governance be accepted by all? What if not? How will a decision for implementation be made? No subgroup of mankind wants to give up its culture, resources, or territory and be told by others what to do or not to do – or lose competitive advantage. No politician ever wants to give up any power. In contrast to the need for guidance by a long-distance vision for mankind, all resources in all nations are always allocated by short-term national political considerations. Ancient societies (the Romans and also some Native Indian tribes in North America) replaced their debating councils by a single war chief when emergencies required forceful and quick action.
ü The dangers of “Rogue Governments” and violent splinter groups of extremists: What are “rogue” governments? Who defines them? They are specifically the nations posing a global burden or threat (especially when nuclear) or just an unjust burden on its subject population (e.g., Zimbabwe, North Korea – now also Libya and Syria) – requiring international intervention. There is a need for an understanding of the functioning and self-perpetuation of such rogue governments by not only a dictator, but also by the benefitting group surrounding such dictator (also in industry and some ideological groups or churches). Such understanding should allow to better arrive at the possibility of their restraint. With China and Russia on the United Nations Security Council, intervention is systematically blocked in view of their internal situations of suppression of minorities. Does Iran have a “rogue government”? Not in the opinion of most Iranians – possibly not in the opinion of most Muslims! What is the definition of a “rogue” government and who is entitled to do the determination? Then, there are the violent splinter groups seeking recognition or independence – from Northern Ireland to the Basque provinces of Spain, the Kurds of Turkey, Iraq and Iran, the Tibetans or Uigur of China , the Chechnians in Russia, the Tamil on Sri Lanka, and more – some extending their violence not only to their perceived occupants but to the international community at large. Should they not receive support in their search for freedom? – at what cost to international stability? Where the Southern States of the US at the beginning of the great Civil War justified in seeking independence?
ü “Global Employment” for “individual sustenance”. The problem of global employment may, actually, be the most immediate problem for most people on Erath. In more detail, it is a problem of material sustenance for individuals and families to cover basic needs and personal ambitions. Here, the discussion may become very vague and confusing. What are “basic needs”, what is the justification for “personal ambitions”? Furthermore, satisfaction of basic needs leads to desire for more fullness of life. Happiness comes from the positive differential – more than from a given status. The most pressing problem for most people on Earth, however, still is the global problem of inadequate employment opportunities – as can readily be observed everywhere when traveling outside Western suburbia. On the other hand, no country wants to give up its own employment opportunities for the benefit of others. The large-scale movement of jobs from Europe and America to China was an ominous sign. What can possibly be done to lift global employment – including Africa? Why was economic theory not more successful in offering solutions to this problem? As indicated, investment for employment is inhibited by corruption or lack of law-and-order – and by prevalent cultures of low work performance.
ü “Social Balance”, not only within nations, but increasingly also between the nations on Earth on a global scale, my become an essential concern of the world of the future due to better communication between nations, greater threat to all nations from instability in any one, the realization of greater unity of all mankind, and, importantly, from the threat of more mass migrations. Social imbalance is perceived as unfair, often is self perpetuating, and provokes social unrest. Is there an obligation to mitigate social imbalance between nations when there is no right for interference to influence the causes for poverty in any one of them? Among nations, the additional question arises what obligation to assume when facing large scale corruption as so prevalent among poor nations and organized crime (as from drug trade) in the government of needy nations. In the case of social caring within a group of people or a nation, the question arises what to do with the lazy, the undisciplined, or willfully abusing ones.
ü The definition of the “Future Culture” of a global society on Earth may be the most difficult, but also the most important long-term concern for a “guiding” function of mankind, as demanded by the first concern. What comes to mind? Openness for variety – yet, mainly, some common “values” (e.g., law and order), combined with tolerant respect – even neighborly coherence. Not all people want a tolerant and global mixing of all cultures. Many want to retain their own traditions and culture – and want to impose their religion on others! After all, life is judged by emotional concerns – too seldom by neighborly love. The ancient Greek “agape”, the Christian love, should reign supreme – finding application in behavior which makes life tolerable for all on Earth.
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What could be the motto for a desired future world?
Should there be a motto of “Reduce Suffering, Improve Opportunities Fairly for All”?!
Could one talk about a motto of “Rights, Obligations, and Aestetics”?
Beyond the securing of an improved level of well-being for all, progress should occur in the building of a culture of mental growth and personality improvement, service to fellow men or society, combined with stewardship of nature, and the joyful appreciation of the arts and all the beauty in this world. Job opportunities along these lines are needed.
Could there be a motto of “Growth, Service, and Culture”?
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In sum:
o “Global Guidance” is a fundamental concern of our world. No active “president” of any nation can find the time and horizon to dedicate his skills to this theme – being absorbed by daily needs of governance (see Obama recently). No single individual may satisfy the need for this job (as Moses did).
o A “global guidance committee” should be formed by proven great leaders (Carter, Mandela, Lee Kuan Yew, Schmidt, …)
o Additionally, national “guidance committees” can be formed by nationally proven leaders – in the US: former Presidents, former Secretaries of State (Kissinger, Brzinsky, Powell, Albright), …
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Special articles will follow on this website, some still in the process of being written:
(1) Global Guidance
(2) Governance
(3) Poverty and Global Employment
(4) Social Balance
(5) Special Global Concerns
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FS
(6) AN
(7) I&MR
(8) MS
(9) RS
(10) SS
(11) ES
(12) US
(13) KH
(10) HH
(11) GJ
Last review: “/Specials-11/Writings/d-History-Politics/6-0-Global-04-29-11”